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USO

USO - United States Oil Fund, LP ETF Holdings & AI Analysis

$168.83
+4.36%

United States Oil Fund, LP

•ETF
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FIT ANALYSIS
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Fund DNA

Management Fee (Expense Ratio)

0.86%High
The annual fee charged by the fund. Lower fees preserve your long-term compounding.

Fund Size (AUM)

$1.91BLarge
Total market value of assets held. Massive funds generally offer maximum liquidity and stability.

Price to NAV

+1.16%Premium
Measures if the ETF trades above (premium) or below (discount) its actual underlying asset value.

Market Sensitivity (Beta)

2.22High Volatility
Measures price correlation with the S&P 500. This fund historically experiences higher price swings than the broader market.
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This fund holds futures contracts for West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude oil to reflect the daily changes in energy prices. It acts as a direct financial bridge for investors wanting exposure to energy markets without having to store physical barrels in their backyard. I have synthesized my analysis of its asset composition, live market action, and macro factors to provide a comprehensive thesis. What specific areas can I detail for you?

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“Caught between tight supply shocks and cooling global demand.”

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BULLISH

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Generated on September 17, 2026
Reference Price: $156.17

Oil is currently walking a tightrope between geopolitical supply threats and the cooling effect of elevated global interest rates. While physical conflicts and OPEC+ production cuts provide a solid floor for crude prices, the broader macroeconomic slowdown acts as a heavy ceiling on how high the asset class can rally.

The Bull Case

  • Persistent geopolitical tensions and strict OPEC+ supply quotas are artificially restricting the flow of crude, creating a supply-side squeeze that inherently supports higher energy prices.
  • With a 14-week RSI of 70.24, oil is showing strong momentum, often serving as a natural hedge when inflation remains stubborn and central banks hesitate to cut rates.

The Bear Case

  • Sustained high interest rates intentionally slow down economic activity, which directly translates to less manufacturing and travel, effectively destroying global oil demand.
  • Because the fund buys paper futures contracts rather than physical barrels, investors face structural headwinds when future contracts cost more than current ones, silently eroding returns over time.

Macro Trends & Strategy Narrow

As a pure-play on crude oil futures, this fund thrives during periods of unexpected inflation and supply chain disruptions. However, its heavy reliance on the economic cycle means it struggles when central banks hike interest rates to cool down the economy, lacking the broad diversification seen in wider market indices.

Fund Risk & Structure

Comprehensive proprietary risk architecture, tracking deviation metrics, counterparty exposure breakdown, and portfolio stress testing across varied macroeconomic interest rate regimes.

Portfolio Role & Verdict

Actionable core portfolio allocation assessment, long-term capital preservation guidance, tactical duration adjustments, and benchmark suitability verdict.

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This report is based on up-to-date financial fundamentals and Wall Street projections.